Note: Scroll to the bottom of this post to view a September 24, 2020 update.
On August 26, 2020 I published an Op-Ed entitled "Op-Ed | Brace Yourself America - We're Heading Right into the Eye of a 2020 Presidential Election Storm". Today's Op-Ed provides more insights and opinions on this timely, critical topic.
Looking through a list of recent articles written by journalist Fareed Zakaria, two caught my eye.
In his first column dated July 23, 2020, entitled "Trump is setting us up for an Election Day nightmare", Zakaria expresses many of the same concerns I shared in my previous Op-Ed.
Zakaria also mentions a few other things, like the possibility of such long lines at some polling places that voters are actually turned away, and the possibility that the final vote counts might not be determined (because of the large volume of mail-in ballots) by the December 8 deadline for states to officially cast their electoral votes.
I know that in my home state of Arizona, Maricopa county (which includes the city of Phoenix and the surrounding area) changed its polling station structure from "assigned precinct" to voting centers for the recent August 4 primary. This meant a reduction from the usual 500 (approximate) stations to about 100 larger facilities. This was done due to COVID-19 (to allow for social distancing). If this is the strategy for the upcoming general election in Arizona and perhaps other states, then this might impact how long people have to wait and whether some might have to be turned away.
In his second column dated September 10, 2020, entitled "Prepare for election month, not election night", Zakaria reiterates the scenario I posed in my August 26 Op-Ed, where on election night it initially appears as though Trump will win, but then as the final results stretch into the next day, and days, Biden becomes the winner - primarily because of the time lag in tallying mail-in votes. The big question is, if this happens will Trump accept the results?
Zakaria talks about recent polls showing that Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans - something that helps affirm the possibility of a "late win" by Biden.
Zakaria also reminds us of what happened in Florida in the 2018 mid-term election, when on November 12, 2018 Trump tweeted:
The Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!
Source:
Trump, Donald. (November 12, 2018). "Trump | Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 2020-09-17.
As Zakaria rightly states, if Trump was saying this during the 2018 mid-terms, just imagine how he might react when HIS reelection is at stake. And let's not forget how much of Trump's massive ego is on the line.
Zakaria continues by summarizing a July 2, 2020 article by Dan Baer, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, entitled "How Trump could refuse to go" which delves into more "gory details" about how this could all go down.
Basically, Baer paints the same scenario of a "late win" by Biden, followed by daily Trump press conferences ranting about the "fraudulent" results, and then Trump calling on battleground state Governors to arrest those connected with the fraud, to respect the will of the people, and to state that he won, not Biden.
Baer then dives deep into what might happen in several battleground state governments (like Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin), how the Electoral Count Act might come into play, and how the election might end up decided by the U.S. of Representatives where the final determination could be according to how many state delegations are Democrat and how many are Republican (not by the actual Dem/Rep House member count). It's quite an interesting "chain of events" Baer discusses and certainly worth reading to understand it in its entirety.
Zakaria finishes his second article by suggesting that the media should start preparing the American public for the very real possibility that the results of the election might take considerable time to determine. He also mentions that Chief U.S. Supreme Court Justice John Roberts, who has not always sided with conservatives, might play a key role.
Trump and his Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany have been been "hard at work" over the past week or so pushing the mail-in ballot "rigged" election conspiracy theory.
At a press conference on September 16, 2020, Trump railed at length about mail-in ballots, claiming that Democrats know that mail-in ballots are fraudulent. Trump also continued to "hammer home" his message of mail-in fraud so that if the time comes, a good portion of Americans will be "on board" when he contests the election results. Read excerpts of what Trump said (or watch a C-Span video, or read a transcript of the entire press conference) in a Health and Wellness Resource article here.
On September 11, 2020, speaking with Sandra Smith of Fox News, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said the following when asked about whether we will know the results of the election on November 3:
Well, if Democrats have their way, we won't. Look at New York. Look at what happened in New York when they tried this mass mail-in voting that overwhelmed the system. We didn't know the victor of that race for weeks. And as the President has said before, we don't even know if we got an accurate result in that race.
What we want election night to look like is a system that's fair, a situation where we know who the president of the United States is on election night. That's how the system is supposed to work. And that's ultimately what we're looking for and what we're hoping for.
CNN reporter Chris Cillizza summed up McEnany's remarks as follows:
What we have here is simple: The official spokesperson for the President of the United States, appearing on the preferred network for a large number of conservatives in the country, suggesting openly that a) Democrats don't want people to know who won on election night and b) if the results aren't known on election night it means that the "system" has broken down.
Source:
Cillizza, Chris. (September 11, 2020). "Don't miss what Kayhleigh McEnany just said about election night
". CNN. Retrieved 2020-09-18.
Over the past 6-8 weeks the Trump administration has filed five lawsuits against five different states regarding the expansion of mail-in ballots.
Fourteen states don't allow mail-in ballots to be processed until election day, and two of those states are battleground states (Michigan and Pennsylvania).
On July 6, 2020, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states can't submit electoral votes that are in opposition to the actual vote count. In theory, this should prevent any "hanky-panky" where some electoral votes are actually cast against the will of the people, but in what will most likely be a very complicated and highly contested election, who knows if or how this might factor in.
If you look at the recent polling numbers on the Real Clear Politics website, Biden has been running between +5.7 and +6.2 nationally, and anywhere from +1.0 to +6.7 in battleground states. When you factor in the "shy" Trump polling possibility, and consider that the race will surely tighten as election day nears, it's clear that a Biden "late win" scenario is a very real possibility.
And finally, with news yesterday about the death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, this just adds a whole new element to how this election might play out if it ends up being decided by the Supreme Court.
If that isn't enough information to make your head spin, I don't know what is, but that's where we're at.
That 2020 presidential election storm keeps looking more ominous all the time.
More:
- Why the presidential election result could take days or weeks — and become chaotic | PBS
- The Election That Could Break America | The Atlantic
- Trump refuses to commit to peaceful transition of power | The Hill
- The Winter of Our Discontent | The American Prospect
- Will Democrats use the nuclear option to blow up the election? | The Hill
- Fox's Napolitano: 2000 election will look like 'child's play' compared to 2020 legal battles | The Hill
September 24, 2020 Update:
Senator Bernie Sanders gave a speech on "Trump's Threat to Our Democracy."
Here are some highlights from his speech:
What I am going to talk about is something that in my wildest dreams, I never thought I would be discussing. And that is the need to make certain that the president of the United States, if he loses this election, will abide by the will of the voters and leave office peacefully. What I will be discussing today is the danger that this country faces from a president who is a pathological liar, who has strong authoritarian tendencies, who neither understands nor respects our constitution, and who is prepared to undermine American democracy in order to stay in power.
I think it is terribly important that we actually listen to and take seriously what Donald Trump is saying. Several weeks ago, speaking at the Republican National Convention, Trump said, and I quote, "The only way they can take this election away from us is if this is a rigged election."...Think hard about what that statement means. What he is saying is that if he wins the election, that's great. But if he loses, it's rigged, because the only way, the only way he can lose is if it's rigged, and if it's rigged, then he is not leaving office. Heads I win, tails you lose. In other words, in Trump’s mind, there is no conceivable way that he should leave office.
Just last night, just last night, Donald Trump went even further down the path of authoritarianism by becoming the first president in the history of this country to refuse to commit to a peaceful transition of power if he loses the election. When asked by a reporter in the White House briefing room, "Win, lose or draw in this selection, will you commit here today for a peaceful transfer of power after the election?" Trump responded and I quote, "We're going to have to see what happens. You know that I have been complaining very strongly about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster. We want to get rid of the ballots and you'll have a very peaceful… There won't be a transfer, frankly. There will be a continuation."
Despite all of the evidence, Trump continues to be obsessed with the belief that there is massive voter fraud in this country. In 2017 after he won the presidency, Trump insisted that he would have won the popular vote, which he lost by three million votes if "millions of illegal votes had not been cast." There is absolutely no evidence of that being true...There have been numerous studies done on the issue of voter fraud in our country. They have all concluded essentially in the same way. Voter fraud in the United States of America is extremely rare.
And yet, we have a president today who calls mail-in ballots a hoax and a scam. Trump's strategy to delegitimize this election and to stay in office if he loses is not complicated. Finding himself behind in many polls, he is attempting massive voter suppression. He and his Republican colleagues are doing everything they can to make it harder and harder for people to vote. In addition, he is sowing the seeds of chaos, confusion and conspiracy theories by casting doubt on the integrity of this election, and if he loses, justifying why he should remain in office.
In this unprecedented moment what can we as a people do in the struggle to preserve American democracy? First, it is absolutely imperative that we have by far, the largest voter turnout in American history, and that people vote as early as possible. As someone who's strongly supporting Joe Biden, let's be clear, a landslide victory for Biden will make it virtually impossible for Trump to deny the results and is our best means for defending democracy.
Second, with the pandemic and a massive increase in mail-in voting state legislatures must take immediate action now, now, to allow mail-in votes to be counted before election day as they come in. In fact, 32 states allow for the counting or processing of absentee ballots, verifying signatures, for example, before election day. All states should do the same. The faster all ballots are counted the less window there is for chaos and conspiracy theories.
Third, the news media needs to prepare the American people to understand there is no longer a single election day, and that it is very possible that we may not know the results on November 3rd.
Fourth, social media companies must finally get their act together and stop people from using their tools to spread disinformation and to threaten and harass election officials.
Fifth, in the Congress and in state legislatures hearings must be held as possible to explain to the public how the election day process and the days that follow will be handled. As we count every vote and prevent voter intimidation everything possible must be done to prevent chaos, disinformation, and yes, even violence.
Lastly, and most importantly, the American people no matter what their political view, must make it clear that American democracy will not be destroyed. Our country from its inception, and through the sacrifices of millions, has been a model to the world with regard to representative government. In 1863 in the midst of the terrible Civil War, Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg stated that this government "of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth." That was true then. That is true today. Regardless of what Donald Trump wants the American people will preserve democracy in our country.
Source:
(September 24, 2020). "Bernie Sanders Speech Transcript: 'Trump's Threat to Our Democracy'". Rev. Retrieved 2020-09-24.