On September 9, 2026, speaking at the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, Trump said (bold added for emphasis):
If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic, tremendous economic success, like in, in history, we've never had anything like what's happening, but because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.
Brad, thank you very much. But the only condition on the payment of this dividend that we're going to be making, so it's $5,000 to every adult. The only caveat I have is that the dividend that we're making must be spent in the United States of America. We don't want you, we don't want you going to Canada to spend the money.
We don't want you going to China, to Germany. You got to spend the money in the United States of America. In other words, if the Republicans win, if you win, we might not win. The reason the Democrats can't do that is because they don't do tariffs, they don't take in money. All they know is poverty and how to ruin our country, but we're making a fortune.
So if the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000. It will be called the Trump dividend. We'll call it the Trump dividend. Congratulations. Now all we have to do, now all we have to do is win. Under my leadership, we also made our historic most favored nation agreements on drug prices. Nobody thought it was possible.
The next day, September 10, Trump announced that the federal government will issue refunds of $500 per person to nearly one million Americans in 30 states.
The official whitehouse.gov Fact Sheet states that the Biden administration grossly mismanaged Obamacare, overcharged Americans through Obamacare plan exchange "user fees," and that those accumulated fees created a surplus of funds which the federal government is now paying back to nearly one million Americans.
Along with the Fact Sheet, a two-minute video of Trump announcing the refunds was posted to the whitehouse.gov X social media account. In the video Trump said that under the Biden administration, the government was "massively" overcharging Obamacare enrollees and then hiding it. Trump also said:
Our administration is doing the right thing and giving the money back to the people who were wrongly ripped off.
Note that last year on November 9, 2025, Trump posted the following on Truth Social:
People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k's are Highest EVER. We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone
About a month later, on December 2, during a cabinet meeting Trump said that the $2,000 tariff dividends would be issued in 2026.
Also note that on February 19, 2025 Trump supported the idea of distributing checks of $5,000 to all Americans, funded by spending cuts made by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency. Those checks were never distributed.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, as of July 1, 2025, there are 269,763,509 adults living in the U.S. If you multiply that number by $5,000 you get $1,348,817,500,000. That's $1.348 trillion.
According to a chart on the Bipartisan Policy Center website, gross U.S. tariff revenues were about $300 billion in 2025 and about $175 billion in 2026 (net revenues were less). That's a total of $475 billion.
Note that as of July 31, 2026, the Trump administration has issued $100 billion in tariff refunds. The refunds are being issued to comply with a February 21, 2026 U.S. Supreme Court ruling which said that most of Trump's tariffs are illegal.
Given those numbers, where is Trump getting the $1.348 trillion he claims he will issue to adult Americans?
If you say that he's getting it from tariffs already collected (as Trump claimed), then subtract the $475 billion total tariffs collected during Trump's second term from the $1.348 trillion needed to make Trump's $5,000 dividend payments, which leaves $873 billion remaining. Where is that money coming from?
Granted, the federal government is still collecting some tariffs, but it's also still issuing refunds.
The numbers don't add up, and Trump knows it. Like always, he just says stuff which sounds good to whoever he's "courting."
During his speech Trump also said:
It's not even two years, but we have more money being spent from outside countries and companies over $20 trillion.
A webpage on the whitehouse.gov website entitled "The Trump Effect" shows a long list of companies and how much they have invested (supposedly, during Trump's second term), along with the statement "Total U.S. and Foreign Investments: $11.2 Trillion."
Trump often boasts about all of the companies (both foreign and domestic) who he believes he has influenced to invest in America, but the $20 trillion (which he said would be as much as $25 million by his 2-year mark in office) doesn't directly translate to another $20 trillion in revenue for the U.S. Treasury. The $20 trillion Trump is talking about is just an amount of money invested, which will eventually result in tax revenue for sure, but how much revenue is impossible to calculate or predict. To say that the total will increase from $11.2 billion to as much as $25 billion by early next year is speculative at best.
Read what Factcheck.org has to say about Trump's numbers (and Trump's entire speech) here.
Trump's tariffs are paid by U.S importers, NOT foreign exporters and NOT foreign countries. In effect, tariffs are an import tax paid to the federal government. Trump NEVER says this because he wants people to believe that foreign companies and foreign countries are paying the tariffs.
Trump's tariffs force U.S.importers to pay more money for goods. Now, Trump is attempting to gaslight everyone by claiming he will give some of that money back. This astronomical "con" takes money away from U.S. importers up front (by charging tariffs), and then tries to make you believe that Trump is doing something to help Americans afterwards (with $5,000 payments). In reality, the $5,000 would just be a redistribution of money by taking it away from one group and giving some back to another group.
In his speech Trump boasts about all of his "tremendous" economic success. If there's been so much success, then why would Trump offer a dividend ONLY IF Republicans win in November? If Trump REALLY cared about Americans, why wouldn't he offer the dividend JUST BECAUSE of that success, and not contingent upon how you vote in November? This is proof that Trump is doing this ONLY to bribe voters.
This is devious Trump, concocting one of his most egregious schemes yet.
The reason Trump is doing this, and doing it right now, is painfully obvious.
Trump knows that Republicans are going to lose big this November. He knows it because of all the reasons I spelled out in a September 8, 2026 HWR post entitled "Op-Ed | Donald Trump is in Serious Psychological Decline (Part 3).". Trump is desperate, and he's throwing everything, including the "kitchen sink" at the problem of how he and Republicans can maintain control of Congress.
So, Trump comes up with this idea to bribe Americans into voting Republican in November. It's a pathetic and desperate attempt to maintain control of Congress, and one of the most despicable things Trump has ever publicly done. The irony of it is that Trump is the person who is responsible for higher prices, putting lower-income Americans into a difficult economic situation, and now Trump is using what he's done to them by trying to "buy" their votes.
On September 11, 2026, political commentator and former assistant U.S. Attorney in the office of the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia Glenn Kirschner posted video on his "Justice Matters" YouTube channel.
In the video Kirschner states that Trump's claim to issue a $5,000 dividend to all adult Americans violates federal law. Kirchner cites "18 U.S. Code § 597 - Expenditures to influence voting" 18 United States Code Section 597 entitled "Expenditures to Influence Voting" which reads:
Whoever makes or offers to make an expenditure to any person, either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate; and
Whoever solicits, accepts, or receives any such expenditure in consideration of his vote or the withholding of his vote—
Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if the violation was willful, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.
Kirshcner states that since Trump has already made the "offer" he has already committed the crime (he doesn't have to actually carry through on the "offer" to have violated this law).
Kirshner also notes that anyone who receives such an "offer" is also committing a crime, which means that everyone who would receive Trump's $5,000 would also be committing a crime.
What's standing the way of Trump being prosecuted for this?
Kirschner notes that Trump's "offer" is not a "core constitutional function of a president" and not an "official act," both of which would grant Trump immunity. Because there's no immunity, Attorney General Todd Blanche could choose to prosecute Trump, but it's clear that will not happen because the Office of Legal Counsel of at the DOJ won't prosecute a sitting president, and there's now way Trump would ever be prosecuted by Todd Blanche's DOJ.
Finally, Kirschner says that states have laws similar to 18 U.S. Code § 597. State laws are beyond the purview of federal presidential immunity. Kirschner makes a plea for state law enforcement authorities, attorneys general, and prosecutors to take action, and for American citizens to contact their state's attorney general.
I sent a message to Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes via her (official website). Here's the text of what I sent:
Hello,
I'm contacting you about Donald Trump's recent claim to send $5,000 checks to all adult Americans if Republicans maintain control of Congress after the upcoming November mid-term elections.
According to Glenn Kirschner (former assistant U.S. Attorney in the office of the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia), Trump's offer violates federal law, "18 U.S. Code § 597 - Expenditures to influence voting."
Kirschner notes that under no circumstances will Trump's DOJ prosecute Trump, but Kirschner notes that similar state laws would be beyond the purview of federal presidential immunity.
As you probably know, Kirshcner is now a political commentator and has a "Justice Matters" YouTube channel.
As a long-term Arizona resident and someone who is deeply concerned about everything that is happening with the Trump administration, I ask that you look into the possibility of prosecuting Trump, and that you consult with other attorneys general across the U.S. to see if perhaps they are willing to join in this effort.
Please let me know you received this message.
Thanks!