Introduction

According to Wikipedia, the phrase "It's the economy, stupid!" originated with Clinton strategist James Carville during the 1992 presidential race between then President George H.W. Bush and challenger Bill Clinton. Since then, that simple phrase has been used many times to succinctly define what some believe is the most significant and deciding factor in a presidential election.

In the 2020 presidential election, for sure what Trump has done for the U.S. economy and the stock market is a compelling reason for some to give him another four years, but if you dig a little deeper I think you'll discover that the underlying, MOST significant factor is religion.

To be clear and more specific, by "religion" I mean Americans who identify as Christians (Protestants, Evangelicals, Catholics, Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses) and other Americans who claim to have a Christian "faith" but might not consider themselves to be particularly religious or have an affiliation with any particular religious group.

It's the religious beliefs of Christians that give Trump a fighting chance in the 2020 election.

Statistics

In a 2014 Religious Landscape Study conducted by the Pew Research Center which included over 35,000 U.S. participants, 70.6% identified as Christian.

According to U.S. Government census data, the estimated 2019 U.S. population was 328,239,523.

If you do the math, approximately 231,737,103 Americans identify as Christian.

The 2014 Religious Landscape Study also found that between 2007 and 2015 there was a 7.8% decrease in the number of Americans who identify as Christian. Assuming that rate of decrease has remained the same from 2015-2020, it means that at least 200 million Americans still identify as Christian today.

Looking at exit-polling data from the 2016 presidential election, according to a November 9, 2016 Pew Research Center article entitled How the faithful voted: A preliminary 2016 analysis, with the exception of Hispanic Catholics, Christians overwhelming voted for Trump over Clinton (81% of white, born-again/evangelical Christians voted for Trump).

When you consider there are 200 million Christians in America (that's at least 60% of the U.S. population), and that a large number of them voted for Trump in 2016, that's a large percentage of the entire electorate. The question, of course, is how many of these voters will vote for Trump again in 2020 and how many will "defect" to Biden.

Religious/Cultural War and Fear

Whether you realize it or not, there is a religious (some say cultural) war going on in America, and one of the manifestations of this war is the great political divide we are experiencing today. Yes, part of what's going on can be attributed to purely political differences (political ideology), but I think, at it's core, it's more about religion and religious beliefs.

Attorney General William Barr described this religious/cultural war quite well (from a conservative perspective) in a speech he delivered at Notre Dame on October 11, 2019. In the speech he describes what he sees as the destruction of traditional Judeo-Christian morals and values, and an "assault on religion", which he blames on secularist/progressive ideology. I will comment much more about this speech in an upcoming post, but for now suffice it to say that I'm sure Barr's concerns are shared by a large number of conservatives, many of whom are Christians, and that a good number of them feel so threatened, that out of fear they will vote for Trump.

Fear is a raw, gut-level, human emotion, and it's an underlying element of Christianity. I understand that the word "fear" as it is used in The Bible is often explained as meaning "respect" or "reverence" toward God. But the fear I'm talking about is the concern (fear) of what might happen to you if you're a Christian and you don't do as God says. The Bible says that if you sin you will be punished and you will not be granted eternal salvation.

Fear is an incredibly strong motivator, regardless of the context in which it applies. If fear is coupled with strongly-held religious beliefs, it can make someone say and/or do things their rational mind would never, ever approve of or allow.

Consider how strongly many Christians feel about abortion, gay rights, and homosexuality.

The sixth commandment states "Thou shalt not kill", and Leviticus 24:17 states:

And he that killeth any man shall surely be put to death.

With regard to homosexuality, Leviticus 18:22 and 20:13 state:

You shall not lie with a male as with a woman; it is an abomination.

If a man lies with a male as with a woman, both of them have committed an abomination; they shall surely be put to death; their blood is upon them.

Joe Biden is a member of the "pro-choice" party that supports gay rights. If you're a Christian, you know that casting a vote for him goes directly against what it says in The Bible!

A significant number of "pro-life" voters will surely vote for Trump based on the abortion issue alone, despite how they might feel about his "bad behavior." The same applies to gay rights and homosexuality.

The "Trump Effect"

If you've been paying attention, you know how much Trump has been pandering to Christians. His pandering started during his 2016 campaign and it's continued relentlessly throughout his presidency.

Perhaps the most blatant example of this occurred on June 1, 2020 when Trump held and displayed a Bible in front of St John's Episcopal church in Washington, D.C. Although Trump's "stunt" received a mixed public response, some notable Christians fully supported him, among them Franklin Graham (son of Billy Graham) and Robert Jeffrees (senior pastor of the 14,000-member First Baptist Church in Dallas, Texas and a Fox News contributor).

Consider how much time and effort Trump and his campaign have spent over the past few months connecting Joe Biden with progressive U.S. House representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, and Rahida Tlaib (who Trump has referred to as "AOC+3"), the recent racial protests and violence in several major U.S. cites (like Portland, Oregon, and Kenosha, Wisconsin), the "Black Lives Matter" movement, the concept of "Defund the Police", and the "radical left" in general.

How about Trump's repeated message that American suburbs will be invaded and threatened because of the housing policies of Democrats?

How about Trump's repeated message of the breakdown of "law and order" in general, and how it will only be maintained if Trump is reelected?

In my opinion (and after many years of careful observation), I think conservative people, in general, are more fearful than liberals. All of Trump's propaganda, regardless of whether it's true or not, is playing on conservative's fear.

Other Things to Consider

To me as an outsider, Trumpism looks and feels a lot like a cult. To me it seems like Trump supporters are all on drugs, but to them it's "gospel." And because the stakes in this election are so incredibly high, they are virtually ALL going to vote. The big questions is, will enough voters who oppose Trump rise to the occasion?

I don't approve of the Electoral College system of determining winners of elections. In 2016, Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by almost three-million votes (48.2% to $46.1%), but Trump won the electoral votes 304-227. I think it's possible the same thing could happen again.

I have mixed emotions about Joe Biden. He's by no means a strong candidate, but some Americans will vote for him only because they can't bear the thought of another four years of Trump. The Hunter Biden "scandal" that recently surfaced and received substantial coverage by conservative media outlets doesn't help Joe. Joe has disavowed any wrongdoing, but the evidence that's been provided, along with the statement from Tony Bobulinski, is sure to sway some undecided voters.

There's a really good chance that Trump will dispute the election results. If he does, there's a reasonably good chance the U.S. Supreme Court will end up deciding the outcome of the election. With the recent addition of Amy Coney Barrett giving conservatives a 6-3 advantage, those numbers favor Trump.

There are quite a few pollsters and analysts out there who continue to say that the traditional polls are not accurate. One of the recent articles I read on The Hill entitled "Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning" suggests the "shy voter" concept with regard to polls (a theory I've read about in other articles as well). The idea is that admitting to a pollster that you're voting for Trump is not "socially desirable", so getting those voters to say they are voting that way is difficult. The article also notes that Republicans have been able to shrink the Democrat/Republican registered voter gap in the three battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, which should be a slight boost for Trump.

Final Thoughts

Last, but certainly not least, on January 17, 2020, I posted an article entitled "Donald Trump | Why the Christian Right Worships Him and Why Liberals Dislike Him So Much". That article, and an article from Rolling Stone on which that article is based, will give you a much deeper understanding of the Trump/Christian connection.

If you've been following my blog, you know I'm one of Trump's strongest critics. I wrote this article based on all of the information I've been able to accumulate and absorb over the past few months.

As I write (October 29, 2020), the RealClearPolitics average shows Biden up by 7.4 points over Trump nationally (trending downward), with the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas as statistically tied (3 point difference or less), and Biden winning in the battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Those numbers sure sound good for Biden, but given everything I've described in this post, and how Trump was able to pull off a major upset in 2016, I can't seem to shake this uncomfortable feeling.