On November 10, 2020, the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear California V. Texas. This case might determine the fate of Obamacare (also known as the Affordable Care Act, or ACA).

An NPR article entitled "The Future Of The Affordable Care Act In A Supreme Court Without Ginsburg" gives a good synopsis of how this case came to be, going all the way back to Chief Justice John Roberts' 2012 ruling that the ACA was valid. Read more here:

What's at stake if the Supreme Court rules against ObamaCare | The Hill

What Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death means for the Supreme Court’s Obamacare case | Vox

For several months Trump and his administration have been saying they will be unveiling a new health care plan to the American people within "two weeks", yet as of this writing none has materialized.

On July 19, 2020, in an interview with Fox News host Chris Wallace, Trump said that we (meaning his administration) would be signing a "full and complete health care plan" within "two weeks."

At a September 16, 2020 press briefing, when asked about Trump's health care plan, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said:

Here at the White House, we have a wide array of people working on it. There have been elements of it that have already come out. There's more that will be forthcoming.

I'm not going to give you a readout of what our health care plan looks like and who's working on it. If you want to know, come work here at the White House.

Source:

Samuels, Brett. (September 16, 2020). "McEnany tells CNN reporter to come work at the White House for details on health care plan". The Hill. Retrieved 2020-09-28.

At a September 22, 2020 press briefing, when asked if Trump's health care plan exists, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said:

The President in the next week or so will be laying out his vision for health care. Some of that has already been put out there -- telemedicine and lowering the cost of drugs ... and protecting pre-existing conditions. But the President will be laying out some additional health care steps in the coming, I would say, two weeks.

Source:

Vazquez, Maegan; Luhby, Tami. (September 22, 2020). "White House again promises health care plan roll out in coming weeks". CNN. Retrieved 2020-09-28.

It's interesting that the Trump administration's pre-agreed upon response to questions from the press seems to be "two weeks." But the big questions are, does a comprehensive Trump/Republican health care plan exist, and if so, why has Trump and his administration being "dangling a carrot" about it for so long?

Until recently, I've been of the opinion that Trump was "treading water" about health care and just lying about any plan or time frame. But now, I think it might be part of a greater Trump/Republican strategy.

You may recall that the U.S House of Representatives narrowly passed the American Health Care Act of 2017 (AHCA or Trumpcare) on May 4, 2017 by a vote of 217-213. That bill was never brought up for a vote by the U.S. Senate. Read what's in the bill here.

Now, I think there's a reasonably good chance that Trump and Republicans really do have some sort of "secret" plan, and that they might be using the AHCA as a foundation for a "new and improved" plan.

I think the reason they have been "dangling the carrot" for so long is because they are waiting for the most advantageous political moment to unveil it.

It's possible that the new plan will be announced as an "October Surprise" in an attempt to help Trump win reelection.

It's also possible that the announcement will be delayed until after the Supreme Court rules on the upcoming California v. Texas case.

Suppose the Supreme Court rules that Obamacare is unconstitutional. With the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the likelihood that Trump's pick for her replacement, Amy Coney Barrett, will be confirmed by November 10, and that Coney Barrett would most likely rule against Obamacare, this is highly probable. The questions would then be, how soon would the ruling take affect and what's going to replace Obamacare, if anything?

Maybe the Supreme Court would stipulate a time frame before Obamacare is officially "dead", giving Congress time to determine how they are going to handle the fallout from 20 million people losing their coverage. But, what if Democrats gain four seats in the Senate in the upcoming general election, giving them control. How might this affect what happens?

Because Obamacare insures only a relatively small number of people in the U.S., and because there is no way Democrats and Republicans could come to any agreement or compromise on any kind of comprehensive health care plan, especially if Trump is reelected, I think it's more likely that the Trump/Republican plan will not be a complete, comprehensive overhaul of our health care system. Instead, it will likely be a much more scaled down version, with enough in it to see that everyone losing Obamacare coverage will be adequately taken care of.

How this all plays out, with Amy Coney Barrett hearings scheduled to start on October 12, the presidential election just five weeks away, and the Supreme Court hearing starting on November 10, it's going to very, very interesting, to say the least.