United States 2018 Midterm Elections

Pre-election Overview

In the 2018 U.S. midterm elections there are 35 of 100 Senate seats and all 435 House of Representatives seats up for reelection.

Currently Democrats hold 49 seats in the Senate and Republicans hold 51. In the House Democrats currently hold 193 seats and Republicans hold 235. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House.

Going into the election there are 15-20 competitive/battleground seats in the Senate and 75-80 competitive/battleground seats in the House.

View info and maps of all Senate races here and here.

View info and maps of all House races here and here.

View a forecast of all the Senate races on the FiveThiryEight (538) website here.

View a forecast of all the House races on the FiveThiryEight (538) website here.

In addition, 36 of 50 states will hold elections for governor (gubernatorial elections), about 20 of which are considered competitive/battleground seats.

View info and maps of all state gubernatorial races here and here.

Finally, 37 of 50 states have ballot measures (155 measures in total).

View info for all the state ballot measures here.

Senate Election Results

The table below shows the election results of all the competitive/battleground seats in the Senate. The "RCP Avg" column shows the average polling spread (winning percentage) of all the major polls taken just prior to the election as reported on the Real Clear Politics website. The "Actual" column shows the actual election results spread. Note that some of the races include Independent, Green, and other party candidates not shown in the table.

View the election results of all Senate races here.

Overall, Republicans had a net gain of 2 seats in the Senate.

State Democratic Republican RCP Avg Actual
Arizona Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally McSally +0.2% Sinema +1.7%
Florida Bill Nelson Rick Scott Nelson +3.3% Scott +0.2%
Indiana Joe Donnelly Mike Braun Donnelly +1.3% Braun +5.9%
Michigan Debbie Stabenow John James Stabenow +10.5% Stabenow +6.4%
Missouri Claire McCaskill Josh Hawley Hawley +0.6% Hawley +6.0%
Minnesota (2) Tina Smith Karin Housley Smith +7.0% Smith +9.6%
Mississippi Mike Espy Cindy Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel Hyde-Smith +9.0% Hyde-Smith +0.9%
Montana Jon Tester Matt Rosendale Tester +4.5% Tester +4.1%
Nevada Dean Heller Jacky Rosen Tie Rosen +5.0%
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp Kevin Cramer Cramer +11.4% Cramer +10.8%
Ohio Sherrod Brown Josh Mandel Brown +7.5% Brown +6.4%
New Jersey Robert Menendez Bob Hugin Menendez +9.2% Menendez +10.1%
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Lou Barletta Casey +14.3% Casey +12.9%
Tennessee Phil Bredesen Marsha Blackburn Blackburn +5.2% Blackburn +10.8%
Texas Beto O'Rourke Ted Cruz Cruz +6.0% Cruz +2.6%
Virginia Tim Kaine Corey Stewart Kaine +18.5% Kaine +15.7%
West Virginia Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey Manchin +5.0% Manchin +3.2%
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Baldwin +10.6% Baldwin +10.8%

House of Representatives Election Results

View the election results of all House races here.

Overall, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats in the House giving them a 235 to 199 majority.

State/District Democratic Republican RCP Avg* Actual
Alaska/at large Alyse Galvin Don Young Galvin +1.0% Young +8.0%
Arizona/1 Thomas O'Halleran Wendy Rogers no polling data O'Halleran +6.4%
California/10 Josh Harder Jeff Denham Harder +2.0% Harder +2.6%
California/25 Katie Hill Stephen Knight Knight +4.0% Hill +3.4%
California/39 Gil Cisneros Young Kim Cisneros +1.0% Kim +1.4%
California/45 Katie Porter Mimi Walters Porter +2.0% Walters +1.4%
California/48 Harley Rouda Dana Rohrabacher Rohrabacher +3.4% Rouda +4.0%
Florida/15 Kristen Carlson Ross Spano Spano +2.0% Spano +6.2%
Florida/26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Carlos Curbelo Mucarsel-Powell +1.0% Mucarsel-Powell +1.8%
Florida/27 Donna Shalala Maria Salazar Shalala +7.0% Shalala +6.0%
Georgia/6 Lucy McBath Karen Handel McBath +2.0% McBath +1.0%
Georgia/7 Carolyn Bourdeaux Rob Woodall Woodall +6.0% Woodall +0.4%
Iowa/3 Cindy Axne David Young Axne +1.5% Axne +1.5%
Illinois/6 Sean Casten Peter Roskam Casten +2.0% Casten +5.6%
Illinois/14 Lauren Underwood Randy Hultgren Underwood +6.0% Underwood +3.8%
Kansas/2 Paul Davis Steve Watkins Paul Davis +4.0% Watkins +1.7%
Kentucky/6 Amy McGrath Andy Barr Tie Barr +3.2%
Maine/2 Jared Golden Bruce Poliquin Golden +0.4% Poliquin +0.4%
Michigan/8 Elissa Slotkin Mike Bishop Slotkin +2.0% Slotkin +3.8%
Michigan/11 Haley Stevens Lena Epstein Stevens +3.5% Stevens +7.2%
Minnesota/1 Dan Feehan Jim Hagedorn Feehan +2.0% Hagedorn +0.4%
Minnesota/7 Collin Peterson Dave Hughes no polling data Peterson +4.2%
Montana/at large Kathleen Williams Greg Gianforte Gianforte +3.7% Gianforte +5.1%
North Carolina/9 Dan McCready Mark Harris Harris +1.0% Harris +0.6%
New Jersey/3 Andrew Kim Tom MacArthur MacArthur +0.3% Kim +1.1%
New Mexico/2 Xochitl Torres Small Yvette Herrell Herrell +1.8% Small +1.4%
Nevada/3 Susie Lee Danny Tarkanian Susie Lee +10.0% Lee +9.1%
Nevada/4 Steven Horsford Cresent Hardy Horsford +4.0% Horsford +8.3%
New York/19 Antonio Delgado John Faso Delgado +1.0% Delgado +2.2%
New York/22 Anthony Brindisi Claudia Tenney Tenney +1.0% Brindisi +0.6%
Pennsylvania/1 Scott Wallace Brian Fitzpatrick Fitzpatrick +2.5% Fitzpatrick +2.6%
Pennsylvania/10 George Scott Scott Perry Perry +2.5% Perry +2.8%
Pennsylvania/16 Ronald DiNicola Mike Kelly DiNicola +4.0% Kelly +4.4%
Texas/7 Lizzie Fletcher John Culberson Culberson +1.0% Fletcher +4.6%
Texas/32 Colin Allred Pete Sessions Allred +4.0% Allred +6.3%
Utah/4 Ben McAdams Mia Love McAdams +2.3% McAdams +0.2%
Virginia/5 Leslie Cockburn Denver Riggleman Cockburn +1.0% Riggleman +6.6%
Virginia/7 Abigail Spanberger David Brat Brat +2.0% Spanberger +1.4%
Washington/8 Kim Schrier Dino Rossi Kim Schrier +3.0% Schrier +5.4%
* Note that unlike the Senate "RCP Avg" numbers, many of the House "RCP Avg" numbers are simply the spread of the last poll reported before the election and not an average of many different polls.

State Governor/Gubernatorial Election Results

View the election results of all Senate races here.

Overall, Democrats had a net gain of 7 seats in governorships.

State Democratic Republican RCP Avg Actual
Alaska Mark Begich Mike Dunleavy Dunleavy +1.0% Dunleavy +9.5%
Colorado Jared Polis Walker Stapleton Polis +6.5% Polis +8.3%
Connecticut Ned Lamont Bob Stefanowski Lamont +4.5% Lamont +2.9%
Florida Andrew Gillum Ron DeSantis Gillum +4.0% DeSantis +0.4%
Georgia Stacey Abrams Brian Kemp Kemp +2.8% Kemp +0.5%
Iowa Fred Hubbell Kim Reynolds Hubbell +0.7% Reynolds +3.0%
Kansas Laura Kelly Kris Kobach Kobach +1.0% Kelly +4.5%
Maine Janet Mills Shawn Moody Mills +8.0% Mills +7.6%
Michigan Gretchen Whitmer Bill Schuette Whitmer +9.2% Whitmer +9.5%
Minnesota Tim Walz Jeff Johnson Walz +7.0% Walz +11.5%
Nevada Steve Sisolak Adam Laxalt Laxalt +0.6% Sisolak +4.1%
New Hampshire Molly Kelly Chris Sununu Sununu +4.0% Sununu +7.0%
New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham Steve Pearce Grisham +8.0% Grisham +14.2%
Ohio Richard Cordray Mike DeWine Cordray +4.7% DeWine +4.3%
Oklahoma Drew Edmondson Kevin Stitt Stitt +5.3% Stitt +11.1%
Oregon Kate Brown Knute Buehler Brown +4.3% Brown +6.1%
South Dakota Billie Sutton Kristi Noem Noem +1.0% Noem +3.4%
Wisconsin Tony Evers Scott Walker Tie Evers +1.2%

State Ballot Measures Election Results

View the election results of all ballot measures here.

State Measure Title Passed Result
Alabama Amendment 2 State Abortion Policy Amendment Yes 59.0%
Arizona Proposition 126 Prohibit New or Increased Taxes on Services Initiative Yes 64.0%
Arizona Proposition 127 Renewable Energy Standards Initiative No 69.3%
Arizona Proposition 305 Expansion of Empowerment Scholarship Accounts Referendum No 65.2%
Arizona Proposition 306 Clean Election Account Uses and Commission Rulemaking Measure Yes 56.1%
California Proposition 6 Voter Approval for Future Gas and Vehicle Taxes and 2017 Tax Repeal Initiative No 55.3%
Florida Amendment 4 Voting Rights Restoration for Felons Initiative Yes 64.5%
Florida Amendment 9 Ban Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling and Ban Vaping in Enclosed Indoor Workplaces Amendment Yes 68.9%
Idaho Proposition 2 Medicaid Expansion Initiative Yes 60.5%
Missouri Amendment 2 Medical Marijuana and Veteran Healthcare Services Initiative Yes 65.4%
Nebraska Initiative 427 Medicaid Expansion Initiative Yes 53.2%
North Dakota Measure 3 Marijuana Legalization and Automatic Expungement Initiative No 59.4%
Oklahoma Question 788 Medical Marijuana Legalization Initiative Yes 56.9%
Oregon Measure 106 Ban Public Funds for Abortions Initiative No 64.4%
Utah Proposition 2 Medical Marijuana Initiative (2018) Yes 52.7%
Utah Proposition 3 Medicaid Expansion Initiative Yes 53.3%
Washington Initiative 1631 Carbon Emissions Fee Measure No 56.5%
Washington Initiative 1639 Changes to Gun Ownership and Purchase Requirements Measure Yes 59.3%
West Virginia Amendment 1 No Right to Abortion in Constitution Measure Yes 51.7%

State of Arizona Local Election Results

View the election results of all local Arizona races here.

Contest Democratic Republican Result
Governor David Garcia Doug Ducey Ducey +14%
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs Steve Gaynor Hobbs +2%
Attorney General January Contreras Mark Brnovich Brnovich +4%
State Treasurer Mark Manoil Kimberly Yee Yee +10%
Superintendant of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman Frank Riggs Hoffman +4%
State Mine Inspector William Pierce Joe Hart Hart +4%
Corporation Commission Sandra Kennedy Kennedy 25%
Corporation Commission Justin Olson Olson 25%

Post-election Analysis and Commentary

Information Resources

One comment on "United States 2018 Midterm Elections"

  1. US House swung Democratic by about 40 seats. US Senate went slightly more Republican. I now have renewed hope we can restore some Democracy, and trump Trump on many legislative battles and get some meaningful results over next 2 years. The House is now an effective “Loyal Opposition”. Well done grass roots voters across America.

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